A selection of Netflix original content sits displayed in the Netflix app on an Apple iPad tablet device in this arranged photograph in London.
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Netflix is putting out strong performance data but investors don’t seem to care, according to Credit Suisse.
Despite positive numbers coming from app downloads and a stellar slate of original content coming out of the streaming company, investors are still fleeing the stock, the firm said.
“Investor interest in Netflix is at a nadir with a view the stock will not work given these competitive launches the next few quarters,” said Credit Suisse research analyst Douglas Mitchelson in a note to clients on Monday. “This suggests that for Netflix shares to rebound, 3Q19 results would have to come in well ahead of expectations.”
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Shares of Netflix have cratered nearly 20% since the company reported second-quarter earnings that showed a rare loss in U.S. subscribers and a big whiff on international subscriber adds. Investors are cautious on the stock with new streaming launches from Disney, Apple and HBO on the horizon. Mitchelson said a huge beat on third-quarter earnings could be the only way for the stock to reverse course.
Credit Suisse said the first seven weeks of the third-quarter show a broad-based rebound in global Netflix trends.
Alongside that rebound, the firm’s tracking also shows a pickup in original content this quarter, particularly with Hollywood dramas and international series. Mitchelson points out how far ahead Netflix is from its soon-to-launch competition.
“We have tracked 48 titles in development at Disney+, 43 at Apple’s TV+ and 23 at HBO Max vs. Netflix with 71 English-language dramas, 62 non-English series, 32 comedies and 108 films in development,” said Mitchelson.
Credit Suisse has an outperform rating on the stock and a $440 price target. The stock trades around $294 per share.
Shares of Netflix sunk 1.5% on Tuesday.
— with reporting from CNBC’s Michael Bloom.