Lululemon is rallying on earnings, and history points to another 17% surge ahead


Lululemon is doing some heavy lifting after reporting earnings.

The yoga apparel stock was up more than 7% after the bell Thursday following a profit and revenue beat in its recent quarter. Shares have surged more than 50% this year, one of the top performers on the Nasdaq 100.

Miller Tabak equity strategist Matt Maley says history points to another double-digit surge until it hits a wall.

“The stock has ‘gapped’ higher on earnings five other times since the beginning of 2018. Each one of those ‘gaps’ was followed by a rally of 17% to 27% from the previous closing level before it took a breather. Previous performance is not indicative of future results, but if history is any guide, the stock should run to at least $220 to $225,” Maley said in an email to CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Thursday. 

A move to at least $220 represents a 17% increase from Thursday’s close. It would also mark new highs for the stock. 

Mark Tepper, president of Strategic Wealth Partners, says Lululemon’s brand strength and ability to resist retail downturns make for an attractive stock.

“Lulu is just an incredibly strong brand and that gives them pricing power. They’ve got one of the most loyal customer followings in all of retail,” said Tepper on “Trading Nation.” He also credits its “three-pronged approach” to grow sales in men’s apparel, digital, and international as reason for continued outperformance.

However, its high valuation keeps the stock out of reach for now, he says.

“This is a stock that I wish we owned but you know we do need to be disciplined in our investment strategy. It’s currently trading at like a 20% premium to its long-term average forward multiple but if there was … a pullback, we’d be backing up the truck,” said Tepper.

Lululemon trades at more than 36 times forward earnings. Its multiple was as high as 41 times a year ago.


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