Here is a summary of the bearish influences on the metal price :
Sentiment is too bullish.
The weekly graph shows a hook sell signal, a sign of coming weakness.
The monthly cycle topped on the 11th and the weekly cycle does likewise on the 17th.
The combination of the bullish sentiment and the cycle tops point to a volatile week to the downside for gold. There is an irregular cycle that bottoms on the 20th which has set off short-term rallies in the past. This is likely to touch off a short-term rally in the last week of the month.
Both cycles bottom in the second week of October. I expect gold to fall to at least $1440, the 38.2% retracement of the prior uptrend, before the uptrend resumes.
Chart 1: Gold Weekly Cycle
Chart 2: Gold Monthly Cycle