Why You Don’t Want A Vote On Stimulus, Unemployment Checks This Week

Here we go again.

House Democrats have unveiled the fifth version of a potential stimulus bill, set to provide aide to an economy still struggling from the response to COVID-19. It’s a pared down bill from the HEROES Act, which was a $3.4 trillion package passed by the House in May, largely on party lines.

The new version of the bill cuts the size of the package down to $2.2 trillion. It comes as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have reengaged discussions on passing a stimulus package before the election. Mnuchin was vital for compromise during the first round of stimulus.

It provides a glimmer of hope for a compromised bill long mired in partisan bickering. This version of the bill would still provide $1,200 checks to the similar group that received the first round of stimulus checks. It also provides $600 in additional weekly unemployment through January. And it reduces the aid to states from about $1 trillion in the HEROES Act to $436 billion. It also includes some wants from Republicans, like $25 billion for airlines to prevent layoffs. The restaurant industry would receive $120 billion and there are funds to help with schools, the Post Office and continued health care response to the virus.

While it’s a significant drop in size from the HEROES Act, it remains above the White House and GOP wish of keeping it near $1 trillion in total. The two sides remain far apart, even with the increased talks.

If you see a House vote this week, consider it a death knell for any compromise before the election.

Swing State Dems Want To Vote

Vulnerable Democrats, particularly freshman legislators, want a vote on the stimulus package as a way to show their base that they’re working to fund aid. It’s not dissimilar to the efforts by the GOP-controlled Senate last month to try and bring a much slimmer stimulus package to vote on the floor.

Pelosi is up against a wall, since the House will recess at the end of the week to allow for the final month of campaigning. Pelosi has said she would call back representatives, if a deal is struck during the final month before the election. If it’s clear a deal won’t come, then she very well could call a vote on the $2.2 trillion package to appease the vulnerable representatives.

If that happens this week, and the House moves forward on the bill, then it means negotiation efforts have failed, reports CNN.

With so little time before the election, it will likely be the end of serious discussions until after November 3.

They’re Closer Than They Have Been

Two weeks ago, a bipartisan group of House legislators called The Problem Solvers Caucus brought forward a $1.5 to $2 trillion deal that would provide checks directly to taxpayers, additional unemployment benefits, about $500 billion for state and local aid and money for schools, the Post Office and continued COVID testing.

The compromised proposal would cut some of the total cost, particularly for the election aid. And it doesn’t include funds for airlines or restaurants, but does earmark $290 billion for the Paycheck Protection Program, which is targeted to small businesses.

Some of the aid – like the funds for unemployment – are spread out beyond January, due to smaller checks.

The White House has signaled some support for this program. Trump and Republicans, however, haven’t moved much from their $1 trillion goal in the bill, coming up to $1.3 trillion. Pelosi has long asked them to move up to $2.4 trillion. Now, it seems, there are two offerings – one at $2.2 trillion by the House and one at $1.5-$2 trillion by the Problem Solvers Caucus – but they both stand above what the White House and many Republican Senators have sought.

The decision, now comes down to whether Trump and Republican Senators feel as if the passing of stimulus will help campaigns or whether it makes more sense to wait out for the election results. Waiting could end in a larger stimulus come January, if Democrats win big next month.

The Fifth Stimulus Package… And Counting

Since the passing of the first stimulus, the CARES Act, in March, there’s now been five firm versions of stimulus packages that have been presented by lawmakers. The HEROES Act, passed by the House in May, is the only one that has moved to vote in a single part of Congress. The $3.4 trillion bill hasn’t seen the light of day in the Republican-controlled Senate.

GOP Senators released their initial version of stimulus in late July. Dubbed the HEALS Act, it came with a price tag of about $1 trillion and included stimulus checks and boosted unemployment checks of $200 per week, among other measures. Senate Democrats bashed the bill because it didn’t provide enough aid while many Republican Senators felt it too expensive.

After negotiations hit a standstill, Senate Republicans released a skinny version of stimulus, which called for only $300 billion in new spending. It wouldn’t include stimulus checks but did lock in some additional unemployment checks at $300 per week. Senate Democrats rejected the bill, preventing it from coming to the floor for a vote.

Now the Problem Solvers Caucus version of the bill remains a possibility, but momentum is moving for a floor vote in the House on the $2.2 trillion bill presented by Democrats this week.

If that happens, then don’t expect any stimulus until well after the election.