Investor Peter Boockvar expects President Donald Trump won’t spoil Wall Street’s Christmas by launching tariffs.
But it may only be a temporary reprieve.
“I do not believe that they will follow through with the December tariffs,” Bleakley Advisory Group’s chief investment officer told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Tuesday. “If we do not have a [China trade] deal, I think they’ll couch it and we’re just postponing the tariffs.”
Boockvar thinks a strong market and economy into the holidays are a priority for Trump.
“The administration knows how sensitive we are to the possibility of those extra tariffs particularly hitting the consumer,” he added.
Boockvar’s concerns are focused more on 2020.
Even if there are no new tariffs and the trade war gets resolved, he predicts stocks won’t have another banner year because they’ve gotten so expensive.
‘Earnings at best will be flat’
“We’re trading at 19x 2019 earnings. You need earnings growth to reaccelerate in 2020 in order to substantiate that kind of multiple,” he said. “We know that for the full-year 2019, earnings at best will be flat and most likely down slightly.”
Boockvar, a CNBC contributor, has been questioning the fundamentals behind the historic market rally for months.
Since last Christmas, the S&P 500 has soared almost 32% and the Dow has gained more than 26%.
According to Boockvar, investors will have no choice next year but to go back to basics.
“People like to say stocks are high because rates are low,” Boockvar said. “But rates are low because earnings and cash flows are getting negatively impacted by the global growth slowdown.”