Data analytics provider CoreLogic has released its 2022 hurricane report, which analyzes storm surge and hurricane wind risk levels for single-family residences and multifamily residences along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts.
CoreLogic risk modeling data shows that nearly 7.8 million homes with more than $2.3 trillion in combined reconstruction cost value are at risk of hurricane-related damages. The report also revealed that nearly 33 million homes with nearly $10.5 trillion in combined reconstruction cost value are at risk of hurricane-force wind damages.
The National Oceanic Atmospheric Association forecasts an above-normal 2022 hurricane season with as many as 21 named storms and up to 10 hurricanes, three to six of which could be major hurricanes.
“This hurricane season could be particularly severe for the U.S. Gulf Coast due to warmer-than-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures, an ongoing La Niña and a stronger than average loop current in the Gulf of Mexico,” said Daniel Betten, chief meteorologist at CoreLogic. “Although La Niña events typically occur once every three years, this fall will likely be the fifth La Niña event over the last seven years.”
Insurers play a critical role in supporting community resilience by ensuring adequate home and flood insurance as hurricanes affect local communities well beyond the immediate damage aftermath. The storms take a toll on the housing economy with noticeable spikes in mortgage delinquency rates and loss in housing inventory.
After Hurricane Ida made landfall in August 2021, 30-day mortgage delinquencies in Houma, Louisiana rose from 1% to 7%. A drop in oil prices had already taken a toll on the Houma economy in the early months of the pandemic. With the additional strain of Hurricane Ida, home prices recovered slowly and rents weakened as workers and families relocated to other areas.
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“Resilience can be thought of as our ability to recover quickly after a shock,” said Tom Larsen, principal of insurance and spatial solutions at CoreLogic. “And because we cannot alter the frequency and severity of natural catastrophes, the continuity of our financial system relies upon the expectation of resilient communities.”
He added, “The current focus is on anticipating what challenges to resilience will be confronting us in the future – a future where we expect more damaging events and threats to the stability of our communities. There are many facets to the response – strengthening our homes, improving infrastructure and accelerating our response and reconstruction. These challenges can be overcome through aggressive preparedness backed by complete data and analytics.”
A closer look at hurricane risk data
CoreLogic evaluated the storm surge and hurricane wind risk levels for single-family residences and multifamily residences from Texas to Maine for the 2022 hurricane season. The data includes the total estimated reconstruction cost value, which is calculated using the combined cost of construction materials, building equipment and labor, and assumes 100% destruction of the property.
CoreLogic pointed out that it is worth noting the extreme unlikelihood that all risk-prone properties will be affected or that all homes will be 100% destroyed during a hurricane season. These figures provide a point of reference and do not indicate what will occur this season.
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CoreLogic examined the top 15 metropolitan areas and states with the greatest number of single-family and multifamily residences at risk for storm surge and wind damage:
- The New York City metro area has the greatest risk, with nearly 900,000 single-family and multifamily residences with nearly $433 billion in reconstruction cost value at risk of storm surge damage and more than 4 million single-family residences and multifamily residences with more than $2.2 trillion in reconstruction cost value at risk of wind damage.
- The Miami metro area follows, with nearly 770,000 single-family and multifamily residences with nearly $193 billion in reconstruction cost value at risk of storm surge damage and more than 2 million single-family residences and multifamily residences with more than $521 billion in reconstruction cost value at risk of wind damage.
- At a state level, Florida, Louisiana and New York have the greatest number of single-family and multifamily residences at risk of storm surge damage with more than 3 million; nearly 911,000; and more than 600,000 homes at risk, respectively. Texas tops the list for hurricane wind risk with more than 8.8 million homes at risk.