Gardens in Singapore
With concerns increasing about US leadership on climate, immigration, and trade, and about Europe, slowed by its own economic and social pressures, my recent Asian travels fortified my sense that 21st century leadership will come from the East.
The region is a work in process and much remains to be done. Civil rights and press and religious freedoms must be advanced. Working conditions and poverty reduction efforts must be elevated. But Asia’s ascendance as the center of gravity is undeniable—actually, it’s a return to normal. The continent dominated the global economy until the 19th century.
Boarding my plane in tired Los Angeles International Airport and arriving at sparkling Changi Airport in Singapore was a reminder. The energy was palpable; the progress, remarkable.
China’s Belt and Road and Made in China 2025 initiatives underscore its superpower ambitions, and it will soon lead the world in research funding. Japan remains the world’s third-largest economy; South Korea is a technological success story. India has emerged as a global powerhouse, and Indonesia is rapidly evolving. Vietnam and Thailand are thriving, and Singapore models innovation for the world. While the US/China trade dispute may cast a near-term pall, the longer-term outlook for Asian economic leadership seems very bright.
Asia leads on another front as well. Home to a majority of the world’s population, the continent is ground zero for the age shift that is impacting societies across the globe. With increasing life expectancies and slowing birth rates, older adults are the world’s fastest growing age segment. Individuals 60 and above will double to more than two billion by mid-century, half of them in Asia. Lifespans in Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Macau are significantly longer than those in the US, where longevity is sadly declining. China has overtaken the US in healthy life expectancy at birth, according to the World Health Organization.
The decade ahead will test Asia’s ability to adapt. By 2030, 60 percent of people 65 and older will call Asia home. Japan will become the world’s first “ultra-aged” nation with more than 28 percent of its population 65 and older. Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea, which is aging faster than any other OECD country, will be “super-aged” with more than 21 percent above 65.
The next decade will not only see demographic change, but unprecedented advances in technology and medicine, as well as cultural and societal shifts. Three out of every five people in the world will live in cities in 2030, many of them older. Seven of the 10 most populous cities in the world are in Asia.
Artificial intelligence and automation will displace millions of workers at a time when an increasing number of older adults need and want to work. Poor nutrition, sedentary lifestyles, and dementia will threaten public health budgets. Caregiving needs and a shortage of direct care workers will burden families. Older populations will be disproportionately endangered by climate change.
But the next decade will offer great possibilities as well. A longevity economy will drive growth as companies develop products, services, and innovations to serve the needs and aspirations of the aging population. Inter-generational workforces will drive the businesses of the future. Educational institutions will benefit as they implement strategies for lifelong learning. Scientific advancements will bring not just longer lives, but healthier and more productive lives.
Asian countries are looking forward to what the World Health Organization has declared the “Decade of Healthy Ageing.” I heard as much from Asian leaders in health, business, and philanthropy. Government officials described major policy and practice reforms as critical priorities. Confucian teachings about respect for elders may not hold as much sway with young people as in generations past, but I detected commitment to supporting older adults that I see too rarely in the West.
Japan, planning for a “100-year lifespan,” is providing support to companies that retain older employees, as well as health, housing, and mobility investments in response to emerging needs. In Singapore, employers offer opportunities to eligible workers up to the national re-employment age, increased in recent years to 67. Inducements include credits that encourage recruitment of workers over 50, “job-redesign” grants that subsidize the retention of experienced employees, and health and expense supports for aging individuals. South Korea’s investment in smartphone and social media strategies enhance engagement for older residents. University programs in China offer skills, stimulus, and social connection.
While these measures are admirable, Asian policymakers and companies can set examples and do more. Companies should meet the needs of aging consumers and reform human resource practices by incorporating age in their diversity and inclusion initiatives. Investment in disease prevention and wellness should increase. The challenges and opportunities should be on the short-list of every Asian leader.
Those who see deficiencies in the West’s vision, values, and determination hope that the world’s growth engine will develop practices that extend health, productivity, and purpose for longer lives. We want it to fill gaps, change the narrative, and promote inter-generational harmony.
The stakes are high and there are risks to be sure. But, I’m optimistic. For those of us working to build a better future of aging, the time has come to look to leadership from the East.