Earlier this week, the media reported that life expectancy in the U.S. had declined by nearly two years between 2018 and 2020, primarily due to the pandemic. The news was more disturbing for people of color: For African Americans, life expectancy declined by 3.3 years and by 3.9 years for Hispanic Americans.
Does this mean you’re really doomed to lose two to four years of your life? Probably not—if you’re alive to be reading this post, it’s highly unlikely the pandemic shortened your life. To understand this more positive conclusion, we need to get into the weeds just a bit to look at how life expectancies are calculated.
Understand the difference between “period” life expectancies and “cohort” life expectancies
The life expectancies that were reported in the media are called “period life expectancies.” A period life expectancy is the average remaining years of life someone has left assuming that person dies according to the death rates measured during the period in question.
Period life expectancies are most often used to estimate the health of a large population over a short period of time and to compare them to life expectancies calculated for other periods. They are not to be used to estimate an individual’s remaining lifespan.
Now, because the pandemic produced higher death rates in 2020 compared to prior years, a period life expectancy calculated for 2020 produced lower life expectancies compared to period life expectancies calculated for prior years. That’s because it’s assumed that the elevated death rates we experienced in 2020 would apply to all future years. But if the death rates decline in 2021, then any period life expectancies calculated for 2021 would most likely be higher. And that’s certainly the hope, given that a large portion of the population has received a vaccine, which is already resulting in a dramatic decline in new infections and hospitalizations.
If you’ve survived the pandemic with your health relatively intact and if you’ve also received the vaccine, then it’s highly likely the virus won’t shorten your lifespan. Of course, new deadly variants or future deadly viruses could change that conclusion, but for now, the outlook is positive.
“Cohort life expectancies” on the other hand, are calculated for a group of people reflecting their characteristics and the experience they might expect over their lifetimes. These life expectancies are calculated in the same way as period life expectancies, except that the death rates used to estimate someone’s remaining future years are modified to reflect anticipated future changes in death rates. If you want to estimate your own remaining lifespan, a cohort life expectancy is often most appropriate.
A cohort life expectancy calculation usually assumes that improvements in health and longevity will continue in the future. For example, it’s often assumed that 20-year-olds today will experience lower death rates in their 50s and beyond compared to the death rates that current 50-year-olds will experience.
Unlike with a period life expectancy calculation, a cohort life expectancy calculation would most likely assume that the death rates experienced in 2020 would not continue indefinitely into the future at elevated rates.
What does this mean for you?
If you really want a more accurate estimate of how long you could live, then visit one of the more trustworthy online life expectancy calculators, which typically produce a cohort life expectancy result once you’ve answered a series of questions about your situation. One of my favorites is the Longevity Illustrator developed by the Society of Actuaries and the American Academy of Actuaries. The results generated reflect your assessment of your own health, whether you smoke, and other key demographic characteristics. It can also estimate how long at least one member of a couple might live.
One more thing: You may have read about the “life expectancy inequality,” revealing a growing inequality in expected U.S. lifespans due the differences in wealth, income, and education between various demographic groups. The reasons for these differences in life expectancies pre-dated the pandemic, are generally the same reasons why people of color experienced higher death rates due to the pandemic compared to the general population. If death rates in 2021 and later revert to pre-pandemic levels, we will still have disturbing differences in expected lifespans for various demographic groups.
We can’t breathe a sigh of relief that the pandemic is over. As a country, we still have important work to do!
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